Original research on life sciences deal-making.

Infectious Disease Deals Are Shifting to Milestone-Heavy Structures

Infectious disease licensing deals increasingly favor back-loaded economics with larger milestone pools and smaller upfronts. Here's what that means for biotechs going to market.

Q2 2026: Three Structural Shifts in Biopharma Licensing

Upfront-to-milestone ratios are compressing, geography premiums are narrowing, and platform companies command structural advantages. Data from 187 transactions closed in H1 2026.

CVRs Are Back — and Structured Differently

23 CVR-bearing M&A transactions since January 2025 reveal shorter time horizons, narrower triggers, and higher CVR-to-total-consideration ratios than the 2018–2020 wave.

China-to-West Licensing: The Comp Set Has Reset

67 transactions from 2023–2026 reveal a new pricing baseline for China-originated assets. The old 0.5x geography discount no longer applies.

Oncology ADC Deals: What the Phase 2 Comp Set Actually Shows

47 antibody-drug conjugate transactions benchmarked by stage, target, and structure. The ADC premium is real — but unevenly distributed.

Only 38% of Licensing Milestones Pay Out

Analysis of 847 development and commercial milestones across biopharma licensing deals reveals a wide achievability gap. Regulatory milestones pay at 61%. Commercial milestones pay at 23%.

The Mid-Pharma Buy-Side: 2027–2030 Patent Cliff Positioning

Which therapeutic areas are attracting buy-side activity, what deal structures mid-pharma buyers deploy, and why this window favors sellers with the right positioning.